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Recent News & Stories from Artur and Joanna Real Estate Team

How's Crime In This Phoenix Neighborhood?

A common question for many buyers with resources to find the answers.

One of the most frequently asked questions about any area, not matter if it's locals or new residents, is about crime.  We, as agents, cannot give out our opinions about crime or crime rates, but we can show you how you can easily find out.  

Crime statistics, despite being a limited measurement, nevertheless provide some indication of the level of criminal activity in an area.

A visit or phone call to other law enforcement agencies may be required and is one of the best ways to get detailed information.

The list of links below will provide you with many answers to your questions about the area, city and state crime statistics.  Overall Greater Phoenix has a crime rate below that of  other major cities and is below the national average, but the question of weather an area is safe should be thoroughly investigated to your personal measures of safety and comfort.

While crime is important it's only one consideration amongst a multitude of measures to consider: jobs, demographics, schools, stores, local culture are amongst the few.  In other word what type of lifestyle and quality of life are you looking for.

Another good way, besides speaking with the neighborhood Police is to be in the neighborhood at different times of the day and night and observe what is happening.  Talk to other residents and get their opinions.

Additional research tools and links can be found on the Buyer's Advisory by the Arizona Association of Realtors.

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Words Matter, Use The Wrong Ones And It Will Cost You.

Are you a motivated seller? Keep it to yourself, or at least don't use that word.

Have you noticed that when it notes in the listing description "hurry, this home will not last long" or something like it, those are the homes on the market the longest?  It always makes me smile because when I see that written it's almost a given that a few months from now I'll see the same listing with the same words, still on the market.  I've seen such homes be on the market over a year.   The words don't make it stay on the market this long, but words do matter and using the wrong ones will hurt the sale of your property.  Sometimes the words are deceptive: a nice word can be not so nice to the sales price.

A study of over 20,000 homes Paul Agnlin at University of Guleph notes what helps and what does not.  Below is a list of some of his findings interspersed with some of my comments. 


What Words Hurt:

"motivated"  properties advertised with this word took 15% longer to sell and sold for 8% less.

"good value"  sold for 5% less.

"must see"

"moving"

"needs TLC"

Superficial words like, clean, quiet, new paint had no effect or hurt the sale.  Things of substance those discussing price and a measure of value hurt the sale.


What Words Help:

"granite", "gourmet", "golf", "lake"

"handyman special"

"beautiful"  sold 15% faster and for 5% more.

"move-in-condition"

Words that denote style, attractiveness help the sale.

Words do matter but they have to be backed up by fact and substance. You can't say "gourmet" if it's not because people will be disappointed.  You can't say move in ready and have dirty carpets.  Don't flaunt mountain views if the only mountain you can see is the tip of some peak over the roof of your house. 

Probably, homes that noted "beautiful" sold faster and for more because they were beautiful, but the use of word has certain connotations that should be paid attention to and used to help the sale, and those words that hurt, avoided.

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Wrigley Terrace in the Biltmore Area.

Sprawling green yards, ranches and beautiful views.

Quiet low traffic streets, lush green landscaping, beautiful views and great location, that's Wrigley Terrace: it's also well card for by residents with many smaller ranch homes of good quality and care: red brick, porches, flowers, custom features and a sense of good taste throughout.

Wrigley Terrace is just north of Beverly Park, at Missouri and 20th St. and it lies within the Biltmore Neighborhood with The Arizona Biltmore in the center. 

Because of its location this is a popular area: the Biltmore Fashion Park, many restaurant, the 24th St. business centers and the Phoenix Mountain Preserve are all near by: in the neighborhood.

It's 34 homes with an average of 1,500sf, but many are more then 2,000 sf.  8 have pools.  The median price is just under $300,000 and there are usually a couple of homes for sale at any one time.

View the Central Phoenix neighborhoods map to explore the central valley.



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North Central Phoenix Real Estate Update

luxury homes are not selling well: more are entering the market then being sold.

The graph below looks kind of scary because of the increasing inventory and homes for sale, but the graph is kind of deceiving.  The data encompasses all homes for sale in the North Central Phoenix area from 15th Ave. to 32nd Ave and Dunlap to Indian School. 
What makes it deceiving is that the graph alone does not show what types of homes are for sale. 

Total inventory has been on the rise and is currently at 6 months putting it somewhere between balanced and buyer's market as a whole, but it's the individual price ranges that really matter since this area is so diverse in homes types and price ranges.  In fact, there are a few homes below $50,000 and the most expensive one currently is $10,000,000. 

North Central Phoenix

The greatest inventory growth has been for homes above $750,000 mainly because there is very little demand for them.  A total of 122 homes above $750K are active and that's 26% of all homes for sale.  An additional better selling but still slower segment between $350,000 and $750,000 comprises another 36% of the active homes for a total of 62% being $350,000 and more. 

Most of the activity is happening in the under $350,000 price range where inventory of good homes is scare at only about 3 months of inventory.  Many sellers are seeing multiple offers.  Still the amount of short sales and lender owned homes is having a damper on any sense of stability and we foresee a lot of higher end homes entering the market as short sales and or as lender owned properties. 
The seasonal high sales are quickly nearing an end and inventory should inch up as sales slow down toward the fall.  

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A $2,000,000 Door | Is This How Your Home Is Marketed?

Price, condition, location are all important factors in selling a home, but what does it matter when your property may not even be on a list of choices.

The main photo (the first one) is the most important one.  All the photos are important and need to be of high quality and representative of the property or its surroundings, but the main photos is the first one seen by possible buyers throughout the internet: from the main access point, the MLS to the hundreds of aggregators that are the sources of homes for many buyers: Realtor.com, Zillow, SearchValleyHomes.com...

Many of these home search websites show only one photo and it's going to be the first one in the MLS or anywhere. 

I know many buyers are annoyed at the photos they see.  When shopping for homes I would like to see some good photos so that I can get a very good idea of what the property looks like, especially if I'm out of easy access to the property, like a different state and many buyers in the valley are.

It does not matter what price the property is, the condition or location: if the photos are bad or not representative, then chances are it will be skipped on the search.

The photo above is a good example.  This is a $2,000,000 home in the Biltmore area and the primary photo is a bad dark crooked shot of the font door.  The good thing is there are about 10+ more photos, not as bad as this one, but still not as good as they should be: the problem is that many lookers will just skip this home: they won't even see the other photos.

The solution is rather simple.  Take better photos, do better marketing or hire someone who can.  As a seller you should expect it.

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The Monsoon Season in Phoenix: Beautiful Misery

What makes summer in Phoenix worth sticking around for?

There is little to love about the summer in Phoenix, especially for a thick blooded cold loving Pole.  I've been in Phoenix since the early 1980's and for most of the years, when I was not on a business trip I was here, in the summer, in the heat and in all those years getting used to it just did not play well with me.  So, I don't like the scorching heat because it hurts and it limits outside mobility. 

I remember when Phoenix was smaller it got cooler when the sun came down.  Now with all the pavement the heat kinda stays around even in the early hours of the day.

There is some consolation to this summer misery: the monsoon. 

The monsoon in Phoenix can be scary, wet, destructive and almost always spectacularly beautiful.

Last year in Central Phoenix the monsoon tore down trees, electric poles into cars, tore off entire roofs and shut the central city down with hurricane force winds.  This was spectacular and left many people in awe: a rare destructive event.

But each year the magnificent cloud formations leave me breathless and in amazement: they are spectacular and alluring: contemplative and humbling.  Each year it's as if I've never seen them before, the thunder clouds which loom over the city, because it's always different.

When evening nears we often hike up the mountains of the Phoenix Mountain Preserve to view the warm sunset colors as they interplay with the complex awesome clouds.  The photo above is a view of Squaw Peak and the surrounding peaks with monsoon clouds in the near distance. 

The Monsoon.

It now starts from June 15th and last to September 30.  

The monsoon storms are: dust storms, violent thunderstorms, days of drizzle, high winds and flash floods.  During this period we get about a third of the year's rainfall.

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Focus On: Peoria, AZ Real Estate Market

A seller's market in Peoria? The numbers say it, but it's not.

Inventory is down and sales are up: prices decline and distress is high, sounds like a typical valley real estate market.
Over the last quarter sales each month have been on the rise in Peoria to tune of 320 homes in June and the Pending sales, a very important indicator, also on the rise, indicating strong sales in the coming month.

All this activity has decreased supply to 3.1 months.  Technically that means it's a seller's market, but it's certainly not a "normal" seller's market.


Peoria, AZ real estate sales graph

(graph is from The Cromford Report)

It's a bank owned seller's market.  Nearly 44% of the active homes are bank owned, a whopping 43% are short sales and only 13% are normal.  I don't really know how the normal sellers can compete against such a huge distressed market.

Nearly 80% of all properties sold in Peoria were either lender owned (61%) or short sales (18.2%). 
What's interesting is that the sales to list price is lower here then in other areas of the valley like Surprise and the listing success rate is much lower at 70%.  That means that 30% of the homes either expire or cancel. 

I'm sure many of these are short sales that did not sell and go into foreclosure.
Peoria is more expensive then both Glendale and Surprise and both those cities have a nice supply of homes competing for buyers, so that may be the reason for the weaker numbers then the neighbors.

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A Contract Not Contingent On Appraisal? Are You Kidding?

HomePath loan program that requires no appraisal for over 400 lender owned homes in Greaer Phoenix.

In a multiple buyer situation a HomePath buyer was chosen over 6 other better offers.  Why would someone, Fannie Mae, accept an offer for less when others are willing to pay more?  I'm speculating here, but maybe because there is no appraisal contingency with a HomePath loan.  There is an increasing amount of homes that are bid up in price and don't sell or have delays and issues because the appraisal does not come in at the price offered by the buyer.  This is a very prevalent problem now and a huge issue for everyone involved. 

There is really no reason to overpay for a property because there are and there will be plenty of homes to choose from for quite some time.  The seller/lenders know this to be an issue and are taking preemptive action when possible, again, I'm speculating, but that seems fully reasonable.  But why would anyone not have the appraisal contingency?  Cash purchase or special loan.  When buying cash you don't have to worry about the appraisal because you have already established the value: you would only have one if you had doubts about your ability to value a property. 

The special loans out there like HomePath also have a special provision which removes the need for an appraisal.  That certainly does not mean you should not do one or at lease consider it, nor should you overpay: it just means that in this very competitive environment, if you are a HomePath buyer, it may give you a slight advantage, even if you don't offer the higher price, because prices is only one component of an offer.

There are close to 400 HomePath qualified homes in Maricopa County for sale.  The number charges continuously.  There is no easy way to search for HomePath qualified homes through regular public MLS searches.  You have two options.  One is search the HomePath database or Two let us set up a customized search for you for HomePath qualified homes in your criteria.  You'll get updates as the homes come on the market.

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