Trends In Phoenix, AZ

I started this post by writing the title.  I wrote it on May 21st, 2011.  The title as you see, "A New Tide Of Buyers Is Coming In 2013" stayed in draft mode for nearly 2 years.  I was just going through the plethora of unfinished posts I have, some 100+ and this one jumped out at me.  

My intention was to write about the buyers coming into the market whom at some point had a foreclosure, bankruptcy or foreclosure. Although the record of these financial mishaps stay on the credit report for quite a while, up to 7 years in some cases, many can buy right after 3 years pass.  

Some who had a short sale could purchase right away, under certain conditions, but most person had to wait 3 years and for many that 3 year period has now passed.  2009 and

The graph below shows, "average annual appreciation based on monthly average sales price per square foot for six different types of dwelling."

There is not much to say about this: it's a simply statement of a fact.

I still occasionally get calls and emails from persons looking for a deal on a home under $100,000 and I often don't get calls back when I explain how difficult and nearly impossible it will be to get a 'deal' under $100,000. I could easily raise that number too.  Instead of me saying it, just look at the data.

There are only 1,382 active properties on the market compared to 3,776 last year. The supply of homes is only 1.9 months. Meaning if no new ones hit the market it will take 1.9 months for what we have to disappear.  What this indicates is that the demand for homes in the price is very strong, so strong that most of the properties will:

• receive multiple offers
• will sold to cash buyers
• will sell for more than asking price.

This rare and exceptional triplex, in the the ever popular and in-demand North Central Phoenix area, that would suit an investor or be a great combo property: owner occupied in one unit while renting the rest.

Each units has a private washer and dryer and a private yard, making them very popular with tenants willing to pay more for these in-demand amenities. The location is something to boast about as well: near the I-51 freeway, near shopping and restaurants, hiking trail in the Phoenix Mountains or a bike ride along the canal and in the Madison schools district.

The property is in very good condition, virtually turn-key. Separate meters for gas and electricity. Irrigated lot that's over 13,000 sf.

Some details.

We sometimes help clients with rentals. Most often these are clients who have purchased homes specifically for investment and they have followed our guidance on what to buy, they also follow our guidance on what to do to find a suitable tenant, but sometimes we get other calls from persons who are new to us who would like to lease out their home.

Most often these are excellent home, but there is an occasional one that simply will not do. There is a mismatch between the desires of the owner, the condition of the home and adherence to our advice.  

Why should anyone listen to our advice? 

The easy answer is if you don't want it, don't call us, but that is smart ass answer. The better answer is, we own rentals, we have rented for ourselves and for

 I don't have a before photo, but it needed a lot of work. It was dated and worn out.  This one bedroom unit had been rented for many years at $450.00 a month.  

When the tenants moved out the owner had asked several people about potential rents and he was given numbers in the $525.00-$575.00 range when fixed up.  The owner had also requested several bids to get it rehabbed, all of which came in high, requiring a several year payback period for the work: meaning that his option was also to keep the rent at $450.00 with minimal work and he would have done okay versus waiting 3 years for a return of this outlay to fix it up, assuming all goes well for 3 years.

The unit needed new floors, paint, shower, kitchen upgrade.  I was called to advise on

I really dislike using ugly photos on this website, but it certainly makes a point. Your neighbor can cost you thousands if not tens of thousands of dollars in lost value on your home when you're selling it.  

The photo represents just one case where a property sat on the market long and sold for less than it should have, had this view not been there.

It could be as simple as the color of a house, but common symptoms include, excessive cars in the driveway, on the street, un-kept yards, messy front yards, un-kept homes. The list is long.

In one case, in a cul-de-sac a client seller's home was next to a home that was nice, except that they kept 3 cars in the driveway and 2-3 cars in the street. Even though it was legal, the cars looked

When ever a vacant unit comes up at a property, which can be rarely if you run the place right, there is a question of what need to be done to it to get it rent ready. Sometimes it's just touch up that's needed, but there comes a point when a property needs more.  

When I first started out owning multifamily properties I had to come to terms with the fact that most owner don't care too much about their properties and when they are sold they do need work right away or they will need work when any tenants move out, that is unless you buy that rare property that had a good steward.  Over the years any unit that became vacant usually got a good overhaul.  Not all of them have, since some units are still occupied by the same tenants 10+ years later. For

Bank owned homes continue to diminish in size and influence on the market.  Below is a chart with total REO numbers in Greater Phoenix.

The purple is pending foreclosures or those with trustee notices on them, or owners who are late and their homes may or may not go into foreclosure.  

The teal color are homes that did not sell at the trustee sale, but are unlisted for sale: shadow inventory, also very small.

The red color is active bank owned homes for sale.  There are about 1,500 of those, much less than in years past.

As you can see the trend is toward normalization of the market. There will always be some foreclosed home.