Tagged : market trends

Sales are down from both 2011 and 2010. Only 8,480 properties sold compared to 9,452 for the same period last year and 9,129 two years ago. The same thing for pending properties: 11,996 currently while last year it was 13,326 and 14,406 two years ago. 

If you only looked at those numbers the trend would look depressing and dismal, but the reality is so much different, it's almost as extreme and surreal as it was in 2005 and 2008.

All those numbers are down from the previous periods only and only because there is a lack of inventory, or demand has driven down inventory to levels that have forced a significant change in the market trend. Lack of inventory, lots of cash out there, a volatile stock market, low interest payments in the banks and low

Ok, sales of traditionally sold homes or in other words not short sales nore bank owned homes are on the rise: in fact, 50% of all properties sold in the recent months are normal sales versus 43% last year and 44% two years ago; that's an improvement, but 50% is not where the market should be.

Since the market has seen an improvement, let's take a look at the 'normal' real estate market.

The best comparison is the look at the numbers against other segments of the market for a given period and the same segment in different periods of time.

Before now, the traditionally sold market was a drag on most of the median and average numbers, like months supply of inventory. While other segments were well into seller's market territory, normal sales

With the improvements in the Phoenix real estate market, investors have increased their activity. The graph below charts sales to investors from 2001 to now. 

The last year has seen about 25% of the properties go into investor's portfolios and the last recorded month that jumped to nearly 30%, that despite the number of properties sold dropping. 

Keep in mind that the only reason the number of properties has dropped is lack of inventory. 

Investors are coming from around the world to take part in Arizona's real estate recovery and the current path the wealth building. 

Just to give you an example of our client base: China, Poland, Australia, New Zealand, Canada plus many investors from different states in the U.S.

2011 was certainly an interesting year overall, but then again I have yet to see a year that was not. I'm not going to say too much about the year: I'll let the numbers speak below and you can always hit the archives to read the month by month plays.

What is clear is that 2011 was a busy year, especially when you compare it to 2008 when only 58,388 properties sold. 

Take a look at how attached properties took off, especially condos and townhomes. Sales went up much more then the market overall: 2011 compared to 2008.

Lender Owned Sales

Bank owned sales were above 2010 levels, but 10K units less then 2009. 2011 was a big year for REO properties mostly because more people had confidence in the future of the economy and real estate values so

Talk of Shadow inventory is still in the media and it often comes up in conversation with potential clients and those asking about the market, sometimes with a hint of glee. The reality is that there is very little shadow inventory, noted below as 'unlisted REO's'.

Pretty much all reo sub-segments are on a decline. The largest chunk in purple are properties with an active 'notice of trustee sale' or real estate going into foreclosure. Note that many of these are short sales and will sell as short sales before the auctioneer can scream. Others will pay off the loan or be modified. 

The pink is reo properties that are active on the market and green are pending reo's ready to close and already under contract.  Demand for REO properties is still

The Arizona Regional MLS is coming out with some nice data lately. It's about time, even though we have the venerable Cromford reports to rely on for well scrubbed data. The newest addition is a monthly report of distress in Greater Phoenix. Here is the intro from the ARMLS, "Gathering intelligence on Short Sales and Foreclosures is now easier with the Distressed Property Report. This report contains three interactive maps: short sales, foreclosures and a map of all distressed properties. Each map is a snapshot of the active distressed property aggregated by ZIP Code. Clicking a dot on the map will display more information. Each map is displayed below":  I like it visually.

The first map shows short sales. Notice where the concentrations are: on the

The success rate is an important measure. It gauges how many of the listings that exit the active market actually sell versus simply being taken of the market for multiple reasons,  amongst them failure to sell.

Below is chart showing the success rate of normal listings - normal meaning traditionally sold homes, i.e. not REO or short sale properties. Remember those? 

These are making a comeback in a big way. They are slowly replacing distressed properties which is a sign of a return to a normal market, one with only a small percentage of distressed properties. 

A higher success rate of normal homes means buyers are willing to buy these homes instead of bank owned and short sale homes. In order to do that they have to see value in this and

While the weather may be cooling down the real estate market in Phoenix continues its hotness, yet the seasonal trend continues: supply increased, demand slowed and prices moved up.

7,436 residential properties sold in October which is awesome good compared to 6,520 last year. I would dismiss 2009 numbers or at least adjust them because there were heavy government incentives to buy at that time. 

Considering how difficult it is to find good homes I think achieving this number is actually amazing. Take away all the over priced homes or homes with unmotivated sellers and the inventory is truly much lower. Just because a home is on the market and even priced properly does not mean it's going to sell. Case in point: we've been trying to get into one

The zip code charts have been updated to include current data for active properties for each zip code in Greater Phoenix as well as sales per month, including September - the last full month and price per square foot all set in a one year chart for easy year on year comparison.

Additionally the chart includes notices of trustee sale, this is the number of notices of a pending foreclosure sale going out to owners in default and also the actual number of trustee sales or homes that sold at the auction, i.e. went into foreclosure. The Phoenix zip code charts are updated monthly and easily available via the market data section of this website.

Why, when it's such a hot market, do we have less pending sales then 2 years ago? Why are sales flat when they should be down? Where have all the homes gone? When will the shadow inventory hit the market? Why can't I get a home under contract? Where is all this cash coming from?

Why are there so many new luxury homes being built? Where are those jobs? And why is everyone saying something different? How do you make sense of all this, where do you start and what does it all mean? And why can't I still get a pair of shorts at the store when it's 100° F outside?

#market-trends-unit-one#

(© 2011 Cromford Associates, LLC SSA2)

At this point we have, still, a smaller inventory of home then in August, but we should be seeing a slight