I thought for a moment that Freedom is an inborn quality:
Either you live with freedom or not.
Either you cling to things  and people or you let them go.
Either you think independently or you follow the crowd.
Either you are a master of your energy or the energy is a master of you.

But now i think that freedom can be learned if this is our priority,
if we have the strong SENSE OF FREEDOM;
or we can become enslaved more and more by people and things and circumstances
and our thinking narrows down. Some people like to be enslaved. It gives them a feeling they are needed.

I have never met a person who would be totally free.

There is always something somewhere keeping us from enjoying it.
The areas of life where we are not free are the very same places where the obstacles to  harmony and happiness are.

It must be  a lonely road to  total freedom.
perhaps it is a goal impossible to reach.
perhaps we don't really want total freedom,
Every time we are more free we gave up something else.
If " freedom is just another word for having nothing to lose"
than being totally free would mean to be dead.
When we are alive we always have something to lose.

Maybe I never met anyone who is totally free because freedom is a process...
We encounter new situations and people every day -
 are we free in relation to them or do they control us?

The road to freedom means to  me :
letting go of one mind conditioning after another, one after another,
but i am creating also more conditioning in my mind along the way,
and each time it happens, I see that,
 but it is so hard to let some of them go,
(those that make me me?)
 it seems that i will give up myself if I do,
that I will feel bad- or is it the simple reason that I am not ready?

Freedom is a state of mind. Freedom is relative. But it is never total.
no matter what we do, there is usually a system we are entangled in.
Even if we think we have chosen an alternative route or live unconventional life.
After all don't we search for more freedom when we think it will make us happier?
Not just for the sake of it?

Joanna Zajusz

One thing we can says is that we live in interesting times: taking any part in the real estate process, it is wrought with almost any descriptive word you can come up with, but it's no different now  then any market  cycle, even tough it seems like it.

It certainly different then it was a few months ago and it's completely different then 2008 when sellers were on the defensive from the few buyers that were seriously in the market.

In general it's still an uncertain market with no clear advantage to any party, which sounds like a balanced market, but it's not.  So lets get into the numbers and see what's happening now and how's it different from the May numbers.

Total residential inventory is down 5% from May: 39,171 to 37,222 and down 31% from last year.  Sales in May totaled 9,217 which was only a few less the May, but I think it would have been higher if buyers did not have to compete for homes, but we'll get to that later.

Normal sales, those that are not REO or Short Sale have the second largest supply at 7.3 months, though this is down as well.  The real inventory is probably even lower since there are a lot of properties not participating in the market: they are over-priced and simply add to the number but have a very small chance if any of actually selling.  None the less they do influence people's decisions.  The prices of these homes are still on the decline.  This segment is heavily influenced by higher priced properties: the move up and luxury segment which is slower moving is still under pressure, especially in the $750,000 plus range.

Lender owned homes are on the out.  That may be a fact or hopeful thinking depending on what you expect in the near future.  The numbers point the way so far and it's toward a smaller inventory of REO homes on the market.  This despite the increase of new lender owned homes to the market in June with was higher then in the few months preceding.  The demand for these well priced homes is so great that it exceeds supply and we foresee the demand to exceed any flood of REO homes that will enter the market, but I would not bet any great amount on that: predicting the future is a fickle activity.

Inventory is down again from 5,475 to 5,150 and the pendings exceed, still, the supply and the monthly sales exceed the supply as well.  This means there is less then a month of inventory.  None the less it's too much and it's influencing the market as whole.  That's kind of my point.  The total inventory of residential real estate is at 4 months with is technically balanced but too much of the supply out there is distressed.

If you are a buyer out for a good deal your not alone.  Read two related articled about this.

1. Is It A Buyer's or Seller's Market in Phoenix Real Estate: There Is No Simple Answer.

2. Are You A Cash Real Estate Buyer? So Is Your Competition!

Signals of how the market has turned are the higher per square foot prices for active, pending and sold properties.  Furthermore the average discount, list price to sold price, is nil.  In fact, good properties are selling for more then asking price.

Increasingly lenders are more willing to do them and now more experienced in getting them done. June sales increased by 300 from 965 o 1,288 and there are many pending homes.  There is a higher chance of pendings falling through then both REO or normal sales. 

This segment is frustrating for many reasons.  Amongst them are the lack of standardized practices: some agents have one offer accepted and submitted to the lender while others gather several and the buyer usually is left without knowing if they will proceed or not for weeks or months.  Other times the listing agent are unresponsive, inexperienced and unable to make a short sale work.  This is a tough job and requires very active participation from the seller and seller's agent, many of whom are unable to unwilling to do this and the buyer and buyer's agents cannot do much about it.

The Phoenix real estate market is still far from being normal and balanced or something near it.  It's getting there, but there's bumpy uncertain road ahead and it's a long road with no map.  Does it mean you should wait to buy or invest? Maybe.  The market conditions should only be a part of your decision to buy or sell real estate, buy or sell when you need or want to and can.  Many of the homes for sale are below replacement cost even when construction cost have gone down.  There are incentives from the government and the rates are good: the results are payments, often, lower then renting, but if your not ready don't buy.

Investing is a lot different.  I propose the complete separation of home ownership from real estate investing.  Investors should look at a multitude of indicators: many of these are saying buy, but buy carefully and not for pure appreciation even though in many cases you'll get it.

The rest of the summer should be very interesting.  We'll see how the market changes as the high seasonal sales taper off.  Will sales still be high?  Is the foreclosure flood coming? Will prices drop as demand decreases?

 (Graphs from The Cromford Report)

(S&P Case Shiller Indicies Graphed by The Cromford Report)

Turquoise:  San Diego

Red:  Denver

Light Blue:  Las Vegas

Dark Blue:  Phoenix

April 2009, the most current indices, shows a price of $104.45 per square foot.   The last time is was near that number was in July 2000.  The trouble with such indices is that they are fallible and often don't reflect the real estate that buyers and sellers have to deal with at the street level vs. looking a computer.

The excesses of 2004-2006 are quite obvious, so much so that we are probably in a state of over-compensation.  That means prices have gone down too much and it seems many buyers see that if the current hot market is any indication.

Does that tail in 2009 look like a start of a slowdown in price declines?  Kind of looks like it.  We'll have a full review of the current June 2009 in the next few days.