The recent slow down in the greater Phoenix real estate market is hard on a lot of people and agents, construction, supply companies etc.  It has a bid effect on our local economy.  Although housing was a big part of the Arizona economy, it is in now way dominant so the economy overall is still doing fine.

Looking at the data for the future we can be very confident that the Arizona economy will quickly go through its excess inventory and there will be a demand for even more housing.  A recent presentation by ArizonaEconomy.com compiles that the data well.  What follows is derived in part from that source. 

Gob Growth Phoenix MSA
2000	3.5%
2001	1.2%
2002	-0.1%
2003	1.5%
2004	3.9%
2005	6.2%
2006	6.0%
2007 (projected)	4.0%
2008 (projected)	3.0%

(from: ArizonaEconomy.com)

What drives the economy and demand for new housing most is jobs.  Job growth is expected to be 4% in 2007 and 3% in 2008.  There is an overall movement of people to the warmer climates south to I-40 which will continue for a long time.  The Phoenix MSA population is expected to grow from the 2,251,876 in 2000 to 4,585,914 in 2010 and 5,885,794 in 2020 and even further out to 7,060,443 in 2030.  In 2007 143,300 people are expected to move here and 127,100 in 2008. 
Every time the population increases by 2.5 people a housing unit is needed. 
UofA said we need 585,000 housing units in the next 10 years. DES said 530,000 housing units in the next decade. 
Phoenix has become a magnet.  Beyond the weather, no natural disasters, and a west cost attitude without the economic pressures, Metro Phoenix is developer friendly and well educated.  That is why employers like Schwab moved here from San Francisco, followed by Google and Ebay, Tuscon has Intuit, Raytheon and IBM. Cities are racing to build infrastructure and the inner cities are undergoing redevelopments and more people rediscover the joys of short drives and an active community.  Although growth in Phoenix MSA has been strong for a while, this is just the beginning.  We are just now starting to see some of the results of redevelopment in downtown.  It's now a great place to visit and live and it will only get better. So if your in for the long run you will do well.  In fact, now is the time to buy; but buy carefully.  This is part of an ongoing series about real estate investing and buying homes in Greater Phoenix and Scottsdale.