Excerpt from:  Greater Phoenix trends and statistics
.
October 21, 2008

17 Months of Greater Phoenix Home Declines With Unlimited Opportunity.

ASU has put out the current ASU-RSI index: the ASU-RSI index is based on repeat sales, unlike the median price tracked by other indices like NAR's


"Back in the early 1990s, the Phoenix metro area -- like the rest of the country -- was suffering through a profound real estate recession and house prices declined for a record 17 straight months."

" ...the latest data for July shows a larger decline from one year prior, making it the 17th
month in a row home prices have declined in the Valley of the Sun."

In the early 90's I was just finishing high school and starting ASU.  I remember those times but I remember much more the people whom I have met that took advantage where everyone else saw disaster.  These regular persons and successful business people were able to see the rare occasion presented to them, presented to everyone just as it is today. 

Though this may be a deeper correction and longer lasting then the 17 months so far reported: in fact it's now, probably, past 20 months - since the ASU-RSI index is 3 months behind, the correction will pass and the market will inevitably stabilize and in years grow again.

"The reporting of the data used to compute the ASU-RSI lags by three-months, so Guntermann also charts the data that is used as an indicator of future housing price direction. As he sees it, the Valley of the Sun is on target to break the record for house price declines. He expects August home sales to drop –26 percent and September –27 percent.

"It's going to be a long time before we get back to where prices are flat from a year ago," Guntermann notes."

Prices will continue to drop! There is simply too much inventory out there and we're all taking a hit even if we were prudent enough to get a reasonable loan or even put down 20% plus: we're all taking it in the derrière for those who chose to gamble with the blinds on and the devil on the shoulder.

So what!  It's now a sunk cost so we need to take a look at where we are now and look for anything that we're missing and most of us are missing how good it is now, how much of a sale there is.

"Anecdotally, it appears investors are starting to return to the market, perhaps thinking that prices are getting closer to the bottom. Also, potential home buyers who couldn't afford to purchase in past years are now finding prices more affordable. On the other hand, the severity of the on-going credit crisis means it is increasingly difficult to find mortgage money. The end result is incidents of actual deals are not frequent enough to stem the ebbing tide of home prices.

Before the current losing streak ends, home prices will get very close to annual declines of 30 percent, says Guntermann."

(view the Phoenix Market Trends report on investor sales in Greater Phoenix )

"One of the reasons home prices are still going lower is the continuing increase in foreclosures," he explains.

(view the Phoenix Market Trends report on REO - real estate owned sales in Greater Phoenix by city )

Some buyers and investors do see how good the deals are out there even if they may get a little bit better before leveling off, they are buying because good properties are selling and in many cases buyers have to compete for properties: despite the high inventory, the supply of properly priced homes in the appropriate condition to the price are few.  It's the REO or foreclosure sales which are priced so low that normal seller's can't compete, but it's these properties that allow buyers to buy affordable homes and investor to gracefully enter the new cash flow economy.

 

Yes, it's bad but it's good: it's up to you how it is.

read the entire article:

ASU-RSI: Duration of Real Estate Price Decline Matches the 17 Month Record (Note: you may need to register and login to see the article if you are reading this a while after publication.)

by The Artur and Joanna Real Estate Team
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