"Back in the early 1990s, the Phoenix metro area -- like the rest of the
country -- was suffering through a profound real estate recession and
house prices declined for a record 17 straight months."
" ...the latest data for July shows a larger decline from one year prior, making it the 17th month in a row home prices have declined in the Valley of the Sun."
In the early 90's I was just finishing high school
and starting ASU. I remember those times but I remember much more the
people whom I have met that took advantage where everyone else saw
disaster. These regular persons and successful business people were
able to see the rare occasion presented to them, presented to everyone
just as it is today.
Though this may be a deeper correction and longer
lasting then the 17 months so far reported: in fact it's now, probably, past 20
months - since the ASU-RSI index is 3 months behind, the correction will
pass and the market will inevitably stabilize and in years grow again.
"The reporting of the data used to compute the ASU-RSI lags by
three-months, so Guntermann also charts the data that is used as an
indicator of future housing price direction. As he sees it, the Valley
of the Sun is on target to break the record for house price declines.
He expects August home sales to drop –26 percent and September –27
percent.
"It's going to be a long time before we get back to where prices are flat from a year ago," Guntermann notes."
Prices will continue to drop!
There is simply too much inventory out there and we're all taking a hit
even if we were prudent enough to get a reasonable loan or even put
down 20% plus: we're all taking it in the derrière for those who chose to
gamble with the blinds on and the devil on the shoulder.
So what!
It's now a sunk cost so we need to take a look at where we are now and
look for anything that we're missing and most of us are missing how
good it is now, how much of a sale there is.
"Anecdotally, it appears investors are starting to return to the
market, perhaps thinking that prices are getting closer to the bottom.
Also, potential home buyers who couldn't afford to purchase in past
years are now finding prices more affordable. On the other hand, the
severity of the on-going credit crisis means it is increasingly
difficult to find mortgage money. The end result is incidents of actual
deals are not frequent enough to stem the ebbing tide of home prices.
Before the current losing streak ends, home prices will get very close to annual declines of 30 percent, says Guntermann." (view the Phoenix Market Trends report on investor sales in Greater Phoenix )
Some buyers and investors do see how good the deals
are out there even if they may get a little bit better before leveling
off, they are buying because good properties are selling and in many
cases buyers have to compete for properties: despite the high inventory,
the supply of properly priced homes in the appropriate condition to the
price are few. It's the REO or foreclosure sales which are priced so low that normal seller's can't compete, but it's these properties that allow buyers to buy affordable homes and investor to gracefully enter the new cash flow economy.
Yes, it's bad but it's good: it's up to you how it is.
read the entire article:
ASU-RSI: Duration of Real Estate Price Decline Matches the 17 Month Record (Note: you may need to register and login to see the article if you are reading this a while after publication.) |