Real estate sales have picked up in Greater Phoenix as they usually do this time of year.  Bu the increase is lower then expected and below last years.  This year 4,335 homes sold while last year 5,385 home sold, that is a 19% decline from last year on top of the 29% decline last year from 2006 sales.  A total of 11,395 sales have been made so far this year.  Take a look at the lower chart of the two.

 

	2005	%	2006	%	2007	%	2008	%
January	9,360	x	5,260	-44%	4,520	-14%	3,350	-26%
February	7,935	x	5,460	-31%	4,280	-22%	3,710	-13%
March	10,035	x	7,265	-28%	5,385	-29%	4.335	-19%
April	8,735	x	5,980	-32%	4,855	-19%
May	10,425	x	6,870	-34%	5,220	-24%
June	11,545	x	5,460	-53%	4,910	-10%
July	10,200	x	5,545	-46%	4,330	-22%
August	10,700	x	5,685	-47%	4,240	-25%
September	9,815	x	4,875	-50%	3,050	-37%
October	8,420	x	4,985	-41%	3,610	-26%
November	7,195	x	5,040	-30%	3,280	-35%
December	6,480	x	4,260	-34%	3,290	-23%
YTD		x		-40%	14,190	-24%	11,395	-20%
Total	110,835	x	67,035		50,975		11,395

(Data From ASU Polytechnic, Graphed by Artur Ciesielski, CCIM)

(Graph from AZREIA.org)

In the last two year, 2006 and 2007 the seasonal increase from the first town months of the year was greater than this year.  Also note that in both of the previous years there was a significant drop in April.  It will be the sales in this month of April 2008 which will give us a cleared picture of the state of the real estate cycle in Greater Phoenix.  Hopefully we will see an increase instead of a decrease.  April seems to be a critical month.