When The Economic Hangover Ends, Will Phoenix Keep Spreading?

October 27, 2009

As the economy improves will the drive to follow historic traditions, those of spreading out not up, once gain grow Phoenix's boundaries and what about the urban landscape.

A recent article titled, Planners Contemplate Phoenix's Post-Boom Future, at NPR on Phoenix stated:

"To compare Phoenix to a person, it's a college freshmen recovering from a weekend of binge drinking. And it's likely to head out again next weekend."

This quote reminded me of a question posed by hoozdo magazine and posted here.

Sexing The City: Is Phoenix Masculine or Feminine?

Despite the boom and bust of this behavior Phoenix is making some progress into the realms of maturity and as college ends the graduate will need to invest for the long term and real estate will be in the portfolio, of that I have no doubt, but that real estate is changing in diversity.

"But nearly everyone knows the real money here is still invested in real estate, as it always has been. Lee McPheters, a research economist at Arizona State University, says he sees another growth phase starting in three to five years.

"Will that growth look a whole lot different from what we've seen before? I really don't think so," he says.

Even Gammage, the real estate developer, agrees.

"I don't think anyone in Phoenix, even those of us who would like to see a more diversified economy — even those of us who have lived off real estate and don't have a lot to do at the moment — think that the Phoenix phenomenon is done," he says."

I don't doubt for a bit that Phoenix will once again not only spread it's wings, but also it's suburbs.

What I do believe is that there is enough momentum in the urban core to drive a lot of development there. There is money to moving into the Central city, organizations and people who want the urban center to thrive and because of that it will. As time progresses the urban city improves despite the economy and despite the negative speak.

Many would like to see more urban development. With the changing demographics and limited energy sources a denser urban core seems like a good progression and a natural evolution as Phoenix increases in population even if this transformation is not in-line with the historic trends in the valley.