Phoenix Real Estate Market Trends Overview

243722 Resource 164804 165387 165387 1255721350937 1256140357646 Controlled Seasonality in the Greater Phoenix Real Estate Market

Beware the coming voices of bad in the real estate market.

There are several types of cycles in real estate and within the big cycles are smaller cycles.  One of those sub-cycles is seasonality.  Simply put, there are times of the year when more homes sell and other times when less homes sell.  The first chart below represents sales by week in a given one month period.  <div align="justify"> </div> The seasonal cycles is very clear here.  Late Spring and Early Summer are the peak period for sale of single family homes.  This chart is for Greater Phoenix, but the general trend is similar in most of the individual metro Phoenix cities.  As summer nears end and especial when the school season begins sales taper off and continue to do so until the following year in early Spring.  <div align="justify"> </div> Sales are lowest in mid January as a result of activity the month before: while showing activity is lowers in the late December holiday season the result of closings is not seen until January. <div align="justify"> </div> The second chart shows total homes on the market: overall inventory does not have the swings sales do: it's completely different and unrelated to sales.  Absorption is affected by seasonality as total sales compared to inventory skews the number low or high.  In the summer in 2009 absorption was at around 4 months while the previous winter is was as high as 10 months and will rise as the weather cools. <img src="http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2663/4015346917_0aafc32122_o.jpg" alt="Annual sales trends in Greater Phoenix" /> (Graphs are from The Cromford Report) On Both Charts The Colors Represent: <ul> <li> Light Blue: 2004 </li> <li>Green: 2005 </li> <li>Dark Blue: 2007 </li> <li>Orange: 2009 </li> </ul> <img src="http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2521/4005284751_5878746253_o.jpg" alt="Real estate inventory levels over the years" /> The reason I want to point this out is that in the coming weeks and months and a little bit already there is some doom and gloom news in the media.  We'll, this is what they thrive on or is that that we thrive on bad news.  Anyways they are going to be pointing out that sales are down and inventory is up, that trustee sales are up etc.  This all normal as pointed out above.  Please take seasonality into consideration.  Don't listen to and believe everything you hear in the main stream media.  I'm not saying it's rosy out there: it's not, but there is much to be positive about and even taking seasonality into consideration the numbers and trends are good: stronger then last year and better then 2007.  We're heading in the right direction.  The worst is probably over.  9 application/xml false buying market trends phoenix real estate real estate seasonality selling when it the best time to sell a home Phoenix Real Estate Market Trends Overview | Housing Market Statistics Current and Historic graphs, statistics, tables and commentary of the real estate market in Greater Phoenix item/180051 Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; U; Intel Mac OS X 10.6; en-US; rv:1.9.1.3) Gecko/20090824 Firefox/3.5.3 GTB5 127.0.0.1 127.0.0.1 aciesielski 98.165.107.13 false true false false true 176502 false false true false false false true 244010 Resource 176502 173239 165387 1256068364787 1256073778412 Controlled Seasonality in Real Estate

<div align="justify"> I agree.  I can hardly stand to listen to the news because its all about how things are getting worse and we are in a crises. Like you said the market is not in its most ideal conditions, but improvement is happening. The company I work for is buying and selling land all over the country very well despite the economic downturns. There is a seasonal ebb and flow to things that people should already understand. Thanks for the article and for helping us all understand what is really happening. </div> 10 application/xml false Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; U; Intel Mac OS X 10.6; en-US; rv:1.9.1.3) Gecko/20090824 Firefox/3.5.3 GTB5 127.0.0.1 127.0.0.1 aciesielski 98.165.107.13 false true false false true 244031 Resource 176502 173239 165387 1256106567109 1256139828633 Controlled Seasonality: Averages and Medians Need A Closer Look

Knowing the difference between right and wrong

Morning Artur, this is a very good article with great graphs, and your point IS very well taken. <div align="justify"> </div> However, your other <a title="Biltmore real estate" href="item/243815">article about Biltmore</a>, shows U.S. that, as you continue to point out, all is NOT what is seems to be.  And, that only looking at "average prices" tells you almost nothing about the home you may be looking at. <div align="justify"> </div> Just as trying to out bid everyone else in 2006 made no economic sense, trying to bottom feed on every home now make no sense.  But, IF you see a home that you really, really like; near where you want to live; you CAN negotiate a price and terms that WILL make sense for YOU. This is not only the land of opportunity, it is "The Time" of opportunities. <div align="justify"> </div> Buying a home, WISELY in this market is a lot like asking a person you truly love to marry you. In the long run it may not work out exactly as you would have liked, but to NOT experience the pleasure(s), is to never know what you might have missed. 10 application/xml false Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; U; Intel Mac OS X 10.6; en-US; rv:1.9.1.3) Gecko/20090824 Firefox/3.5.3 GTB5 127.0.0.1 127.0.0.1 aciesielski 98.165.107.13 false true false false true 244056 Resource 176502 165387 165387 1256139625531 1256139625531 Controlled The Big Picture To Little Details.

There are discrepancies between the greater market, the city, the neighborhood or individual homes.   A home near one our <a href="http://www.ValenciaGrovesHomes.com" title="Mesa Home For Sale">listing in Mesa</a> recently sold or $382,000 in 2 days while homes that are 50% larger in the same neighborhood for or lower amount have been listed, some for over 6 months.  That former home had something unique for the neighborhood, a lot that was twice as large as most of them. I point this out that each and every segment needs a careful individual look.  Not only the home itself, but its architectural style, it price range etc. because each of these is a market in itself that follows it's own trends.  None the less any buyer or seller needs to know the trends of the neighborhood, the city, metro area and even state and national sentiment because they make a difference as well.  Just look at the national impact of the $8,000 tax credit:  it changed the mind set of a lot of people even if it does not directly affect them. The Biltmore area is a case in point.  It is an area rich in diversity of housing stock.  Most of the homes are lower priced, or somewhere under $300,000 and these are in their own market and about half the stock is over $300,000 and up to several million dollars.  These are also in their own market.  The high end is really slow now, though it's picked up a bit, while the low end, especially under $200K is still selling quickly. The discrepancy is big and often shows opposite results from one segment to the other, but all of it needs to be considered. The other thing is that there is a distinct difference between investors and home owners.  Home owners have emotional attachments to property while investors, for the most part, don't. 10 application/xml false Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; U; Intel Mac OS X 10.6; en-US; rv:1.9.1.3) Gecko/20090824 Firefox/3.5.3 GTB5 127.0.0.1 127.0.0.1 aciesielski 98.165.107.13 false true false false true 244126 Resource 176502 173239 165387 1256220839196 1256221737669 Controlled RE: Seasonality in the Greater Phoenix Real Estate Market

<div align="justify"> I think the media want us to think certain things about the property market and lead us in certain directions.  I personally think we are seeing positive movements in the property market and now could be the time for property investors to get back into the property market and profit.  Getting good property advice which you can use and that is relative to your area and circumstance helps you make good choices about investing in property </div> 10 application/xml false Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; U; Intel Mac OS X 10.6; en-US; rv:1.9.1.3) Gecko/20090824 Firefox/3.5.3 GTB5 127.0.0.1 127.0.0.1 aciesielski 98.165.107.13 false true false false true 164804 blog blogsite/ArturCiesielski/web